Ever since starting this blog last February I have looked forward to the arrival of the 2009 football season. While I enjoyed being able to share my thoughts on the college basketball season and UNC's run to the title, the NFL is not only the sport I know the most about, but also the one which I most thoroughly enjoy. Now after the doldrums that is the NFL offseason and the horrible impostor that is the NFL preseason, the real thing finally arrives this week as the Titans and Steelers kick things off at Heinz Feild in the Steel City Thursday night. I will post picks for each week of the season on Fridays on this blog (or Thursdays depending on the schedule). Anyways to kick off here's my predictions for the 2009 season. I'll post the standings for each division followed by a brief paragraph on my thoughts on that division.
DISCLAIMER: I did actually go through the 2009 schedule and pick every game, so the records reflect those picks and are not arbitrarily assigned. *'s represent wild card teams.
AFC
AFC North
Pittsburgh 13-3
*Baltimore 12-4
Cincinnati 7-9
Cleveland 3-13
The AFC North produced the two participants in last year's AFC title game in Baltimore and Pittsburgh and all indications point to those two teams being among the class of the AFC once again this year. The Steelers return almost the same roster that won the Lombardi Trophy last year and actually may have upgraded that team by replacing the aging Larry Foote with uber-athletic Lawrence Timmons. Also keep an eye out for CFL prospect Stefan Logan who made the Steelers roster by being absolutely electrifying on returns during the preseason. Many thought the Ravens may take a step back after losing Bart Scott and Rex Ryan, but the defense has looked intimidating as ever in the preseason and Joe Flacco appears poised to have a stellar sophomore campaign in 2009. The Bengals should be a solid team with a good defense composed of two young stars at corner (Leon Hall and Jonathan Josepth) and two more at linebacker (Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers). Unfortunately Cincinnati runs into Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice a year so their shot at the playoffs is slim. Cleveland looks to once again be going nowhere fast and should end up at the bottom of the division.
AFC East
New England 13-3
Miami 6-10
New York Jets 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13
With Tom Brady back and some upgrades on both sides of the ball (Fred Taylor, Shawn Springs) the Patriots look to have a chance to regain their 2007 form, a scary thought for the rest of the league. The offense should once again be explosive, however the defense is young and lacks veteran leadership after the departures of Vrabel, Bruschi, and Seymour this offseason. The Dolphins will take a step back based on the tougher conference schedule and the return of Brady for the Pats. The Jets will most likely struggle due to the same factors coupled with a rookie quarterback at the helm. The Bills have shown no semblance of an offense this offeseason and look to pick in the top 5 of next year's draft.
AFC South
Jacksonville 11-5
*Indianapolis 11-5
Houston 10-6
Tennessee 8-8
The AFC south looks to be an absolute powerhouse this year with no teams projected to finish below .500 in my preview. The Jaguars are my sleeper team of 2009, as they were decimated by injuries last season and now return a more healthy team that finally has a legitimate receiver in Torry Holt. While many feel Holt is on the downside of his career, he is a talented route runner with good hands who can fulfill a similar role as Derrick Mason does in Baltimore. Peyton Manning no longer has the options he used to at wideout, but the addition of Donald Brown along with Manning's ability should earn the Colts the second wild card this season. The Texans are a chic pick to make the playoffs and just miss out to the Colts and the Jags. I expect Tennessee to regress as Kerry Collins rarely puts together back to back solid seasons and the loss of Albert Haynesworth will slightly downgrade the defense from last season.
AFC West
San Diego 11-5
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 5-11
Denver 4-12
Many experts say the Chargers have the most talented roster in the NFL this season and have picked the Bolts to win it all this year. However as they have been saying that for the past 5 years I hesitate to crown them until they actually make it to the Super Bowl. San Diego should have three legitimate candidates for comeback player of the year in Merriman (if he stops choking reality television stars), Cromartie, and LaDainian Tomlinson. The defense will be improved and the offense has talent at all the skill positions. The rest of the AFC west makes me sad for football as three proud franchises are all floundering. Kansas City shows the most promise for the future but I don't expect any more than 6 wins this year. Oakland continues to horrendously overpay for players doomed to disappear in the Black Hole (see Javon Walker, DeAngelo Hall, Randy Moss, and most likely Richard Seymour). Denver has fallen the furthest going from having one of the most promising young QB-WR duos in Cutler and Marshall a year ago to now having the less than impressive duo of Kyle Orton and Eddie Royal (who to be fair is a good player).
NFC
NFC North
Green Bay 11-5
*Chicago 11-5
Minnesota 8-8
Detroit 2-14
Green Bay was a much better team than their record indicated and the Packers look to take a Lambeau Leap into the playoffs this year in Aaron Rogers second season as the starting quarterback and the defensive shift to a 3-4 (which we here at VFSS are very supportive of). Chicago almost made the playoffs last year and the addition of Cutler finally brings the Windy City a legitimate quarterback, even if he is a bit of a baby. The Vikings have become a sexy pick with Peterson and Favre but I am banking on Favre breaking down by late October and turning into an interception machine. The Lions manage to get some wins this season but still end up picking first next April.
NFC East
Philadelphia 11-5
*New York Giants 11-5
Dallas 10-6
Washington 3-13
The NFC East again perhaps the most talented division. While Washington looks to take a step backwards the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys all are legitimate contenders in the NFC. The Eagles have one of the quickest and athletic offenses in the league with weapons such as Westbrook, McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Maclin, and of course Michael Vick. The Giants have issues at wide receiver but I expect Nicks or Manningham to step up as the top option by midseason, and ultimately their defense is so good (Osi comes back healthy to join Tuck) they don't have to light up the scoreboard. Dallas falls just short of the playoffs, hopefully due to a punt hitting the Texas-sized scoreboard.
NFC South
Atlanta 11-5
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 6-10
Atlanta manages to win the division as Matt Ryan continues to emerge as the leader of a potent offense with Turner, White, and Gonzalez all as Pro Bowl caliber weapons. The Saints do make a jump this year with a slightly improved defense, but still fall short of the playoffs. The Panthers who only a couple years back had one of the best defensive lines in the league look to be susceptible to the rushing game, and Jake Delhomme also makes the Panthers susceptible to any team with a secondary who can catch a football. The Buccaneers look to be in a transition phase under a new coach and the firing of an offensive coordinator right before the season never seems to bode well.
NFC West
Arizona 9-7
Seattle 8-8
St. Louis 6-10
San Francisco 4-12
Arizona once again sneaks into the playoffs with a sub-par record by winning the weakest division in the NFC. All the teams in the division look to be improved, but a daunting schedule and a recurring lack of talent prevents any team from supplanting the Cardinals. Arizona remains a team that will be inconsistent but dangerous if they make it to the playoffs. Seattle looks to be improved and has the best chance to overtake the Cardinals for the division title. The Rams should improve with a better defense and a healthy Stephen Jackson but still are not ready to be a playoff team. San Francisco is in a building stage under Mike Singletary and could make a leap in a couple years but not this season.
Playoff Predictions
AFC
1) NE
2) PIT
3) SD
4) JAC
5) BAL
6) IND
NFC
1) PHI
2) GB
3) ATL
4) ARZ
5) NYG
6) CHI
Bracket:
Overall, a solid assessment man.
ReplyDeleteI don't have a problem with people projecting the Colts winning the division because they have been at worst 2nd only twice since 2002. You just can't bet against that type of consistency until there is ample reason to do so. A few people beleive that time has come but they still have Peyton Manning and they have also added some girth to thier defense.
ReplyDeleteBack to the Titans though I think it can be argued that they are the most well rounded team in the division. Last year despite their passing woes they were able to be adequate offensively (avg 23.4 ppg compared to the Colts 23.6 ppg)* while there defense carried them ranking in the top 10 in many categories.
While the loss of Haynesworth dents the possibility of remaining a top 5 defense the defense is still returning 10 starters so they should remain a pretty solid on that side of the ball. The deffensive line is running 9-10 deep trying to replace AH and I believe they will be quite succesful on passing downs as the Titans don't lack pass rush specialist. Where losing Haynesworth hurts oddly enough is against the run despite what the stats say the Titans weren't that good against the run. Last years teams were force to abandon the run and pass more often then usual because of getting down early leading to the Titans being the 3rd highest pass targeted team. When teams did establish the run they were able to find success (2x Houston, NYJ) so taking out a 6'6" 330 pound linemen is going to hurt on running downs. Even though Haynesworth wasn't know for being stout against the run he still demanded double teams in run situations this season they will be lacking that presence. Despite this glarring weakness I feel like it can be masked by the offense to a similar degree as it was last year.
Offensively they have made some upgrading acquisition; however, I'm not going to expect them to necessarily increase the scoring output. Nor do I expect that with the potential upgrades that now all of a sudden it becomes so easier to run the ball. To effectively hide some of the weaknesses in the defense the Titans need to win the time of possession battle. Despite being a very good run team last year the Titans were in the bottom half in TOP mainly because of how terrible they were in completing 3rd downs. Last season they were a bottom 5 team in the league in and hopefully this is where the offensive additions can help. Although they are rookies adding big athletic targets in Cook and Britt can potentially help not only as 3rd down targets but in the red zone as well. Say what you want about Nate Washington but he is a vast improvement over McCareins and should make Justin Gage's like easier.
Overall I see the Titans at worst going 9-7 and at best going 12-4 with my official projection being 11-5 in a tie with the Colts.
Also I have to disagree about Collins. He might be nearing the end of the road but the formula (run game, pass protectin, TE play, solid defense) to Collins success remains intact in fact the additions they made could potentially help produce a better season for him. Then you take into account that he has gone through TC as the #1, has a better chemistry/comand of the team I don't see how he regresses.
i fully expect the miami dolphins to win the superbowl under the leadership of serena williams
ReplyDeletelmfao.. you got the skins going 3-13! wft are you smoking? 9-7 at worse child...
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