The Big Carolina Blue Enigma

Well after a painful three game slide which had people seriously doubting whether UNC is a tournament team (and make no mistake, the answer has yet to be determined), the Tar Heels finally reverted back to the early season form that had some people thinking they could make a run at the Elite Eight or Final Four. Yes, it was only State, but it was the first true road win for the Heels. Furthermore, aside from a brief dry spell to start the second half, it was the most composed and consistent performance the team has put together since beating Michigan State back in December.

Assuming Davis's ankle is recovered and does not become a nagging injury, the team should be able to build on last night's win. Doing so will be crucial given the next four games: UVA at home, @VT, @Maryland, and Duke at home. The Tar Heels pretty much have to win the UVA and VT games if they want to make sure they get a NCAA bid. To remain in contention for a wide open ACC, the Heels will need to win at least one of the other two games, neither of which will be easy. The Terps actually may be playing the best of any team in the ACC right now, and it will be a major chore to try and slow down General Grevis and Eric Hayes in College Park. As far as Duke goes, Scheyer and Singler will be looking to get some revenge for all the losses they suffered at the hands of Hansbrough, Lawson, and Co.

So can the Tar Heels go 3/4 in that stretch? I think so. Will they? It depends on a lot of things. Following are my short thoughts on some of the players and culminating in what I think the starting lineup should be.

Marcus Ginyard- In a weird way I think the worst thing for Marcus Ginyard was the preseason comparisons to David Noel. Whereas Noel was able to carry the 2006 team (even though Hansbrough was the leading scorer) Ginyard has failed to do so and honestly looks as lost as the freshman at many points during the game. Ginyard is not Noel, and he is trying to do too many things right now. He was at his best as a role player who could come into a game, give great effort on defense, grab some boards, and knock down a couple shots.

Deon Thompson- Deon hasn't evolved in the dominant player some thought he could be when Hansbrough left, but neither does he deserve the criticism some have heaped on him. He leads the team in points, and is the only player other than Davis who can be consistently relied upon to score. As seen last night, he works best when Davis is in the game and he can become isolated with his man. I would like to see him hit the boards harder and go to the rim stronger during games.

Will Graves- Graves is and always has been a volume shooter. If he's knocking down a bunch of threes then he's probably also missing a fair number. Where he has impressed me is on the defensive end and with his rebounding. He's working his way into better shape and giving a more consistent effort. He shouldn't be the primary scoring threat, but is the best outside shooter on the team. On a slight tangent I absolutely loved the "eff you" three Graves knocked down at the end of the game. It showed a swagger this team has been desperately been missing.

Ed Davis- Nothing to really say here. He's been the best player on the team bar none. Here's to hoping his ankle injury was just a minor blip.

Larry Drew II- Drew II is perhaps the biggest enigma on the team. He seemed to really catch on during the nonconference schedule, then has been extremely underwhelming during the three game losing streak, looking unconfident with his shot and turning the ball over. I was almost ready to give up on him, then he put on a great performance last night with 18 points, 7 assists, and only a single turnover. Hopefully this will lead to Drew playing confident throughout the rest of the schedule, but the true test will be against Vasquez and Scheyer.

Dexter Strickland- Strickland is the best talent on the team aside from Davis. However he has yet to consistently take advantage of this talent and for every performance like last night's he will have a game with a 5 points, 2 assists, 4 turnovers stat line. He attacks the basket better than anyone on the team and at his best looks like a poor man's John Wall. He seems to be most effective when playing off guard alongside Drew II.

The rest of the freshman have all shown flashes (John Henson continues to flash potential at points without truly breaking out) but have not put up any consistent performances. McDonald has become more comfortable on the court and deserves more PT. The Wears are sound players, but they never dominate. While Henson could bolt after next season if he puts on some muscle and live up to his potential, I expect these freshmen to really come into their own their junior year, ala May, McCants, and Felton.

Quickly, Tyler Zeller for the second straight season is missing significant time due to injury. While I was very frustrated with his play against Virginia Tech, the truth is that UNC is only 1-3 in his absence and could definitely use him.

So with all that covered here is how I would like to see the starting lineup and rotation shake out for the next few games.
PG: Drew II (30 min), Strickland (10 min)
SG: Strickland (15 min), Ginyard (17 min), McDonald (8 min)
SF: Graves (24 min), Henson (8 min), Ginyard (8 min)
PF: Thompson (30 min), Wears (8 min), Graves (2 min)
C: Davis (32 min), Wears (8 min)

When Zeller gets back he can take a chunk out of Thompson, Davis, and the Wear's minutes as necessary. I think getting Ginyard 25 quality minutes off the bench will help get him back settled into his natural fit of being a productive role player. All of the freshmen aside from Strickland are getting a solid 8 minutes (based on recent trends Travis may get a larger share of the 16 split between the two twins), which should let them continue to develop. The starting lineup give UNC its most effective backcourt, its one major 3 point threat, and about 30 points and 15 rebounds per game in the frontcourt.

Breaking Down the NPOY Candidates Jersey Shore Style

As we pass the midway point of the college basketball season the national championship picture remains as murky as ever. Kansas has showed in the past week that they are far from being the perfect team some may have thought they were early in the season. Texas is great but lacks championship pedigree. Kentucky is as streaky (during games, I realize they are undefeated) as they are talented. Basically I wouldn't recommend putting down serious money on any team this season.

While trying to get a gauge of what teams will be the legitimate contenders in March may be near impossible, the National Player of the Year Race is beginning to become more clear. In my opinion there are five major candidates to win the award. I could just list them and share unbiased thoughts on each candidate but what would be the fun in that. Instead why not combine college basketball with something I have found almost equally entertaining this winter, Jersey Shore. In all honesty I have never been a fan of reality television, and have never watched a single episode of the Real World. But after being urged on by several people I finally caved and watched an episode of the cultural phenomenon that is Jersey Shore. Halfway though the first episode I was hooked. So like it or not, I'm breaking down the NPOY candidates by comparing them to Jersey Shore characters.

Pauly D- Evan Turner (Ohio State)
Here's the thing. I'm totally convinced Pauly D would be the most entertaining character on a majority of reality television shows. I mean for Christ's sake the dude packed an entire suitcase full of hairgel for his summer trip to the Jersey Shore. He came on strong, faded into the background a bit but has recently re-emerged as extremely entertaining with the addition of his stalker. Turner came out looking like a consensus NPOY candidate, then broke his back and faded into the background as John Wall and others took over the spotlight. He has reemerged in a big way with his 30+ points in the win over Purdue, but still may miss out on the award due to consistent performance of his competitors throughout the season. Also it is quite likely that Evan Turner also "loves a challenge" almost as much as Pauly D does (though he does not say so every 30 minutes).

Vinny- Wesley Johnson (Syracuse)
When the show started, Vinny was a bit of an afterthought. He seemed strikingly normal and did not offer the dramatics or theatrics of characters such as "The Situation," Pauly D, or Snookie. Vinny was the more traditional Italian mama's boy who seemed to be along for the ride. However Vinny has consistently been picking up steam (starting with hooking up with his boss's girl and culminating in his amazing impression of the Situation) as the show has gone on. Much like Vinny Wesley Johnson was a relative unknown going into the season but has continuously increased his stock and worked his way into the NPOY picture. Johnson, like Vinny is also of more humble origins, having transferred from Iowa State.

Snookie- Jon Scheyer
With this one I'm just going to jump right into the comparisons. Both are completely polarizing, you either hate them or you love them. Both completely and consciously embrace their stereotypes (Guido for Snookie, Duke basketball for Scheyer). Both have faces that are topics of conversation in and of themselves (Snookie's apparent lack of lips due to her fake tan and the now infamous Scheyerface). However, ultimately both are ruthlessly effective at what they do and deserve recognition. Scheyer is the clear leader of the Blue Devels and has an outer worldly assist to turnover ratio. Snookie carries the show and has an outer worldly failure to attempted hookup ratio.

Ronnie- Luke Harangody
Ronnie has been fairly entertaining and predictable throughout the show. He is always puts up a consistent performance with occasional moments of immense entertainment including several fights. However he could be so much better were it not for the fact that he is completely whipped by Sammie. The 'Gody has put up perhaps the best stats of all the contenders, averaging just under 25 points and 10 rebounds per game. Unfortunately he is also being held down by his relationship with Notre Dame.

Mike "The Situation"- John Wall
Over the past year two figures have taken their genres by storm and become overnight phenomenons: John Wall and The Situation. Both are reason enough to turn on the television and watch just for the few moments when they absolutely take over the show. With both you never know what is going to happen next. In fact the only thing that keeps this comparison from being absolutely perfect is that John Wall has been at his best closing out games while The Situation has serious issues sealing the deal. These are the two most engaging people on TV right now. And that is why John Wall is currently my favorite for NPOY.

That pretty much wraps up the major contenders for the NPOY, but as you may have noticed there are a few Jersey Shore cast members left and VFSS never leaves a job undone. So here you go. While these aren't NPOY favorites, here are a few more Jersey Shore comparisons.

Sammie "Sweetheart"- Deon Thompson
Like Sammie, Deon showed early promise coming out strong in the first couple games of the season. No one thought he would be a NPOY contender, but some expected him to provide leadership and carry what some thought to be among the best frontcourts in the nation. I am not a Deon hater and think he still deserves to be a starter for UNC but I must admit he has been disappointing just as Sammie.

J-Woww- Demarcus Cousins
Outside of Lexington Demarcus Cousins has become public enemy number one in college basketball. He has a tendency to commit hard fouls and doesn't seem to be trying too hard to shy away from the thug label some people have bestowed upon him. J-Woww likewise embraces her tramp status from her fake boobs to the minimal clothes covering them. Both can take over in spurts and become the most entertaining/effective people on the court/Jersey Shore, which is no easy feat considering their supporting casts.

Angelina- TIE Andrew Goudelock, Chandler Parsons
Angelina was quickly on and off the show and didn't make any lasting impact on the show. She did, however have one of the best quotes of the entire series in response to having to work at the T-shirt shop "I'm a bartender, I do like... great things." As such Goudelock and Parsons who both came out of anonymity to hit highlight reel shots are the best comparisons thus far in the college basketball season.

The Great Wall and Why UNC did not Recruit Him

Tyler who? Last May when perhaps the most iconic basketball player of the decade graduated after four years as a media darling at Carolina, people jokingly wondered who would take his place. Well for the answer just go to the College Basketball frontpage of ESPN, SI, Yahoo, Foxsports, or nearly any sports website for that matter. John Wall emerged out of crowd and forced his way into the spotlight, quickly becoming to college ball what LeBron James is the NBA (at least for a year).

Wall has not only lived up to the hype but has surpassed it. He put on a show on national TV against contenders UNC and UConn. Avid college basketball fans who follow the recruiting process knew John Wall would be a ESPN Top 10 mainstay and put together a highlight reel of dunks like he did over Jerry Stackhouse in a summer league game. Statistically Wall is performing as well as expected, averaging 19 points and 7 assists per game. What we did not expect of Wall was his crunch-time clutchness. Wall takes over the last 2 minutes of close games in a way that evokes images of Jordan. With Evan Turner out of the running due to a broken back, Wall has a great chance to win NPOY this season. What is truly scary for all basketball fans outside of Lexington is that Wall can afford to improve. He is not an outside shooting threat at this point and while he's shooting a respectable 35% from 3-point range, Wall has only had one game in which he made more than one trey. Shooting usually improves in between seasons, but if Wall can become more of a threat outside the arc he may become literally indefensible. One area where Wall definitely can improve by March is turnovers. He is turning the ball over almost 4 times a game and will need to limit this number if the Wildcats hope to be able to overcome teams like Kansas. Overall though, Wall is putting together a freshman season that rivals that of Carmelo, Durant, and Rose.

Given the prodigious talent that is John Wall, it came as a surprise to some that Roy Williams chose not to recruit the local high school phenom last May. His decision was clearly not a matter of misjudging talent as Williams has been quoted as saying Wall was the best point guard prospect he had seen since Jason Kidd. As such some have been quick to fault Roy for this decision. Williams stated that he wasn't sure about the fit, which some have interpreted to mean that Roy didn't want to potentially take on a prospect who could be in violation of recruiting regulations. Furthermore it is far from certain that Wall would have ended up at North Carolina, as his handler, Brian Clifton, has some personal vendetta against the Carolina ball coach (though after what happened with Barnes I am never counting UNC out of any recruiting competition).

However, I think there was a much more basketball-related reason for UNC's decision not to recruit Wall. After Ellington and Lawson declared, I think Roy knew UNC would still not be a title favorite even with Wall in the backcourt. Furthermore, he knew Tar Heels already had talented backcourt commits Bullock and Marshall coming in next season and probably also had an inkling that they could get Barnes as well. Wall was a virtual lock to be one-and-done and Roy already had a solid point guard in the perpetually underrated Larry Drew II. I feel Williams decided to plan for a title run in 2010-2011 by letting Drew II gain confidence and experience this season so that next year's squad could have an experienced floor leader, and hoped that this year's squad would be able to put it together under the leadership of Thompson and Ginyard and compete in a bit of a down year. Basically it was like passing up a one night stand with Jessica Alba in favor of seriously dating Rachel McAdams. Yeah you may have missed out on an amazing night with a smoking hot babe, but in the end you go to bed with Rachel McAdams every night.

Ultimately the plan could pay off big time, contingent on a couple things. The first was his faith in Drew II would have to be well placed. So far it seems like it is. Drew II is fifth in the nation in assists averaging 6.6 per game, while also developing confidence in his scoring ability. Drew currently averages 8.7 points per game (a number I expect will break into double digits by season's end) and is shooting nearly 40% from three point range. Drew does not have Wall's athleticism or explosiveness, but is much faster than he gets credit for and is also a good defender. Ultimately Roy chose Drew over Wall, knowing that by doing so he could have an experienced floor leader for next year's championship run.

The second aspect of the plan is that UNC's frontcourt will still be good enough next year for them to compete for a national title. Zeller and the Wear's were pretty much locks to be back. The Wears won't dominate games, but are technically sound and should be able to give quality minutes as reserves next season. Zeller has shown flashes of dominance but he still needs to become more physical if he is to be a starter on a title team. John Henson may have seemed like a one and done prospect before the season started but so far his considerable talent has been undermined by his lack of size and thus lack of a position. He may be most valuable at PF next season with Barnes and Graves at SF, but will have to put on some serious muscle in the offseason. The real X factor will be Ed Davis's decision after this season with regards to the NBA. Davis has shown enough recently to warrant being a legitimate NBA lottery pick next June and many assume this is his final season at UNC. Unlike many college stars debating jumping early, Davis does not feel the same financial pressures as his father is a former NBA player. Likewise, his father probably realizes that while he certainly has NBA skill he could still afford to polish his game (especially offensively) in order to make sure he can come in and contribute as a rookie in the NBA. Finally, if UNC falls short of a national title this season as is expected, Davis may have a hard time turning down the chance to play with a team chock-full of McDonalds All-Americans and win a second national championship.

The final aspect of the plan is that the UNC backcourt will be as good as expected next season. While Henson was the most hyped of the freshmen, Dexter Strickland has the most potential to make an impact this season. He is slowly learning the point guard position that he will likely play at the next level and in recent games his turnovers have gone down while his points have increased. With pure point guard Kendall Marshall coming in next season Strickland will be able to act as a combo guard and will probably start at his natural position of SG, where he will be joined by 6'6 top recruit Reggie Bullock and will have quality backup depth with Leslie McDonald and Justin Watts. At the SF position mega-recruit Harrison Barnes and redshirt senior Will Graves will round out what should be a backcourt loaded with talent.

So UNC fans shouldn't be too dismayed that John Wall is not a Tar Heel. Next season they could be title favorites. For now just enjoy the chance to watch the force of nature that is John Wall.